Forecast Dashboard

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Will a third country (non-US, non-Iran, non-Israel) NATO or EU member formally restrict US military operations from their territory within the next 7 days?

Will the United States deploy additional ground forces or announce ground operations against Iran within the next 7 days?

Will Iran conduct a direct military strike against US or allied assets in the Gulf region within the next 7 days?

Will a non-US NATO ally (UK, Germany, France, or Spain) formally restrict or deny US military use of their territory for Iran operations within 48 hours?

Will a critical chokepoint disruption event occur in the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb within 48 hours that reduces transit capacity by >10%?

Will Iran conduct a retaliatory military strike against US or allied assets in the Persian Gulf region within the next 48 hours?

Will a NATO ally base or European territory experience Iranian or proxy military strike within the next 24 hours, triggering Article 5 discussion?

Will the Trump administration publicly announce or implement authorization for sustained ground operations in Iran within the next 24 hours?

Will Iran or Iranian-aligned forces launch a direct military strike against US or allied military assets in the Gulf within the next 24 hours?

Will a major European NATO or EU ally formally restrict US military operations from their territory in the next 7 days?

Will the US or Israel launch additional air/missile strikes against Iranian targets or Iranian-aligned facilities within the next 7 days?

Will Iran conduct a direct military strike against US or allied assets in the Gulf within the next 7 days?

Will a neutral actor (Oman, UAE, or international mediator) initiate a formal ceasefire or de-escalation dialogue proposal that both Iran and the US acknowledge within the next 48 hours?

Will the US announce or execute additional military strikes on Iranian targets within the next 48 hours?

Will Iran launch a direct kinetic strike against US or Israeli military assets in the Persian Gulf or Eastern Mediterranean within the next 48 hours?

Will a third-party state (UK, France, Germany, or regional ally) formally withdraw military support or publicly refuse US coordination for Iran operations within the next 24 hours?

Will the US announce or execute additional military strikes on Iranian targets within the next 24 hours?

Will Iran or Iranian-aligned forces conduct a direct military strike against US or allied assets in the Persian Gulf region within the next 24 hours?

Will crude oil prices exceed $100 USD per barrel (Brent) within the next 7 days due to Iran-US escalation concerns?

Will any Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) state formally announce restrictions, denials, or withdrawal of military basing/logistics support for US operations against Iran within the next 7 days?

Will Iran conduct a direct military strike against US or allied assets in the Persian Gulf region within the next 7 days?

Will oil prices breach $100 USD per barrel or will global crude markets show >15% intraday volatility spike attributable to Iran-US escalation within the next 48 hours?

Will a NATO or Gulf Cooperation Council member state publicly announce withdrawal, suspension, or material reduction of military support/base access to the United States for Iran-related operations within the next 48 hours?

Will Iran or Iranian-backed forces conduct a direct military strike against US or allied assets in the Persian Gulf or Eastern Mediterranean within the next 48 hours?

Will reported Gulf state air defense interceptor missile stocks fall below operational threshold (publicly confirmed depletion of >70% of reserves by any state), forcing documented rationing or pause in defensive operations?

Will a Gulf Cooperation Council state (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, or Oman) announce it is restricting or refusing use of its territory/airspace for US military operations against Iran?

Will Iran or its proxies conduct a retaliatory strike against US or allied military assets in the Gulf within the next 24 hours?

Will a Gulf state formally invoke collective defense commitments (NATO, bilateral treaties, or GCC security pact) against Iran within the next 7 days?

Will a major petroleum chokepoint (Strait of Hormuz) experience a significant disruption to commercial shipping within the next 7 days?

Will Iran conduct a direct military response against US or Israeli targets within the next 7 days?

Will Iran conduct a direct military strike against US assets or allies in the Gulf within the next 30 days?

Will crude oil prices exceed $100/barrel or experience a >15% single-session spike within the next 48 hours?

Will a US or allied warship/naval asset be damaged or disabled in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz within the next 48 hours?

Will Iran conduct a direct military response against US or Israeli targets within the next 48 hours?

Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz experience measurable disruption (>20% reduction in transits or insurance premium spike >50%) within the next 24 hours?

Will a NATO or Gulf Cooperation Council member announce new military deployments or force posture changes to the Persian Gulf region within the next 24 hours?

Will global crude oil prices exceed $90 USD per barrel within the next 24 hours?

Will Iran conduct a direct military response against US or Israeli targets within the next 24 hours?

Will the United States issue a formal diplomatic statement addressing concerns about the French nuclear offer within 30 days?

Will at least 3 additional European NATO members formally commit to France's nuclear deterrence framework within the next 30 days?

Will France and at least one non-Nordic EU state announce a bilateral nuclear cooperation framework or timeline for deployment trials within the next 7 days?

Will the United States issue an official statement addressing France's nuclear deterrence expansion within the next 7 days?

Will at least 3 additional EU member states formally announce acceptance or active negotiations of France's nuclear deterrence offer within the next 7 days?

Will Russia issue an official diplomatic response or warning regarding France's nuclear deterrence expansion proposal within the next 48 hours?

Will at least two additional EU member states formally announce their intention to enter negotiations with France on nuclear deterrence arrangements within the next 48 hours?

Will the U.S. State Department or NATO Secretary General issue a formal statement addressing France's nuclear deterrence offer within the next 48 hours?

Will a second EU member state (beyond Denmark) publicly commit to or express serious interest in France's nuclear cooperation framework within the next 24 hours?

Will the U.S. State Department or Pentagon issue a public statement on France's nuclear deterrence expansion to allies within the next 24 hours?

Will Germany formally respond to France's nuclear deterrence offer within the next 24 hours with either acceptance, conditional interest, or explicit rejection?

Will China or Pakistan issue an official diplomatic statement criticizing or countering the Canada-India nuclear deal within 30 days?

Will any third country (US, China, Australia, or UK) issue an official statement responding to the Canada-India nuclear deal within the next 7 days?

Will a trade deal framework between Canada and India be finalized or substantially concluded within the next week?

Will Canada and India announce a formal timeline or concrete milestones for the nuclear energy cooperation agreement within the next 7 days?

Will a third-party country (US, China, or major allied nation) issue a statement responding to or contextualizing the Canada-India nuclear deal within 48 hours of announcement?

Will Prime Minister Modi or Foreign Minister publicly commit to a specific timeline for completing the Canada-India trade deal negotiations within the next 48 hours?

Will Canada or India issue an official joint statement or press release formalizing the nuclear energy agreement framework within the next 48 hours?

Will external actors (US, China, or regional powers) issue official diplomatic responses or policy statements specifically addressing the Canada-India nuclear cooperation within the next 24 hours?

Will market or media sources report material changes in Canada-India bilateral trade volumes, investment flows, or rare earth/energy sector positioning following this nuclear agreement announcement within the next 24 hours?

Will either Canadian or Indian government officials issue a formal joint statement or schedule a high-level bilateral meeting to operationalize the nuclear energy agreement within the next 24 hours?

Will there be a direct military collision or ramming incident between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea within the next 30 days?

Will China announce or execute new military restrictions on commercial shipping in the South China Sea within the next 7 days?

Will there be a direct military or coast guard incident (vessel collision, ramming, or weapons deployment) in the South China Sea within the next 7 days?

Will the US establish a formal timeline for expanded military base access in the Philippines within the next 7 days?

Will ASEAN issue a collective statement or emergency response addressing the South China Sea escalation within the next 48 hours?

Will the US military issue a formal statement or conduct a public freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea within the next 48 hours in response to escalating Chinese activities?

Will there be a reported physical confrontation or collision between Philippine and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea within the next 48 hours?

Will the US Department of State issue a public statement regarding South China Sea stability or US alliance commitments to the Philippines within the next 24 hours?

Will China announce or formally declare new military restrictions on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea within the next 24 hours?

Will there be a physical confrontation between Philippine and Chinese vessels at Scarborough Shoal within the next 24 hours?